Evaluation of Geothermal Potential in Eastern Africa: Insights from Multicriteria Analysis and Geospatial Techniques

Abstract

Eastern Africa faces a significant energy deficit, with demand driven by 
transportation, domestic, and industrial needs. Despite the availability of 
substantial geothermal resources, their exploitation remains limited due 
to a lack of adequate information and technical capacity across many 
African countries. Geothermal energy, being a clean, reliable, and 
sustainable source, offers a promising alternative to conventional 
energy sources such as fossil fuels and hydropower, which often have 
high prices (oil and gas) and are environmentally unsustainable or 
seasonally constrained. This study addresses the knowledge and 
technological gaps by identifying and mapping geothermal potential 
zones across Eastern Africa using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis 
(MCDA) framework integrated with the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy 
Process (Fuzzy AHP) and ArcGIS. Five primary geothermal indicators 
were evaluated: proximity to hot springs and geysers, presence of active 
and young volcanic rocks, occurrence of major faults, regional heat flow, 
and land surface temperature. Each criterion was weighted using Fuzzy 
AHP, with hot springs and major faults receiving the highest significance 
in identifying geothermal prospects. The analysis revealed thirteen 
zones with extremely high geothermal potential: six in Ethiopia, two in 
Kenya, two in northern Tanzania, two in Uganda, and one between 
Rwanda and Burundi. Additional zones in northern Malawi, other 
regions of Kenya, Rwanda, and parts of Tanzania also demonstrated 
very high potential. The results were validated using known geothermal 
wells, confirming the effectiveness of the model. This research not only 
enhances the understanding of geothermal potential in the region but 
also provides a strategic t