Techno-Economic Feasibility Analysis of Solar-Powered Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure in Mbeya City, Tanzania

Abstract

Reliable and affordable charging infrastructure is critical to the transition to electric mobility in Tanzanian cities. This study 
compares three grid-connected charging pathways for Mbeya City: solar PV and grid, battery storage and grid, and solar 
photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage and grid using hourly HOMER Grid simulation, Excel validation, and sensitivity analysis. 
The modelled demand was 729.8 kWh/day (266.4 MWh/year), with a peak of 130.83 kW at 18:00 for one charging point. Solar 
and Grid delivered the best economic performance, with CAPEX of $83,983, net present cost of $117,948, LCOE of $0.034/kWh, 
annual utility-bill savings of $15,891, 5.34-year simple payback, 6.5-year discounted payback, and 18.56% IRR. It maintained zero 
unmet load, supplied approximately 40% renewable energy, and reduced gross grid-related CO₂ emissions by 45.8 t/year (50.5%). 
Solar, storage and grid increased the renewable fraction to approximately 90% and reduced CO₂ emissions by 33.4 t/year 
(36.8%), but its NPC rose to $1.486 million because battery cycling and replacement costs dominated lifecycle expenditure. 
Sensitivity analysis showed that tariff, EV demand, PV cost, solar resource, inflation, and battery cost materially affect viability. The 
results support Solar and Grid as the most defensible first-stage architecture for Mbeya, with storage added selectively where 
resilience or peak-management benefits justify its lifecycle cost.